QB beer sheet 2026: the surplus-dollar table that keeps you out of the $40 quarterback auction
The beer sheet is deliberately rude: every quarterback's worth is his points-per-game above the guy you can stream off a waiver wire, multiplied by the ~16 weeks you collect that gap. In a 12-team, $200 league, replacement QB is roughly Goff-tier at 17.5 PPG (standard scoring).
The math (2025 production as the projection base, retrieved 2026-09-03, standard scoring):
| Player | PPG | Surplus over replacement | Beer-sheet bid cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22.8 | +5.3 | ~$30–35 |
| Drake Maye | 20.7 | +3.2 | ~$20 |
| Matthew Stafford | 20.6 | +3.1 | ~$18–20 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 20.4 | +2.9 | ~$18 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 19.9 | +2.4 | ~$15 |
| Brock Purdy | 19.7 | +2.2 | ~$12–14 |
| Jalen Hurts / Caleb Williams | 18.8 | +1.3 | ~$8–10 |
| Dak Prescott | 18.5 | +1.0 | ~$6–8 |
| Herbert / Nix / Goff and below | ≤17.9 | ~0 | stream for free |
Source: DraftCall rankings, draftcall.io/rankings/qb/, refreshed daily.
Why the QB market is full of hot air. QB is the least scarce premium position in fantasy: the drop from Allen to the 12th QB is 23 percent — the smallest of any skill position (vs. ~50 percent at RB and WR). You can start a Brissett, a Jones, or a Dart and lose maybe one point a week to a Mahomes. Paying $45 for a quarterback is paying a premium to buy a rounding error, and that money buys an actual RB2 or WR2 somewhere else.
The one exception is Allen, and only in standard. His 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing TDs are real points that PPR sheets dilute. If the room has already torched $70+ on two running backs, taking Allen at $30-ish stops bleeding — you're paying surplus-accurate money while everyone else's star-buying inflates the entire rest of the pool.
The injury-depressed names. Joe Burrow (16.8 PPG on 8 games), Jayden Daniels (16.3 on 7), and Lamar Jackson (16.5 on 13) all rank 15th–17th purely because of sample size, not ceiling. The market will re-rate them up; don't buy back at $25 hoping they hold, and don't fade them at $10 if you believe in health. Small-sample PPG is a coin flip, not a tier.
Inflation rooms specifically: every $40 you refuse to spend on a quarterback is $40 of inflation distributed across the 11 other wallets. QB is the position where letting the league's big spenders win the auction is most often the correct outcome — the trophy they buy is the cheapest one in the store.
Caveats: figures are 2025 regular-season production (completed season the 2026 projections are built from). Purdy's number rides on a 9-game 2025 — volume, not durability, is priced. Nobody's 2026 schedule adjustment or betting-market information is baked in here.