Expected points versus actual points: finding the buy-low
Fantasy points tell you what happened. Opportunity and expected production help explain whether it should happen again.
A player with strong usage but disappointing results may be a buy-low candidate—especially if the problem is efficiency or touchdown variance rather than disappearing opportunity. A player producing huge numbers on a fragile role may be a sell-high candidate.
Do not worship expected points. Use them to ask better questions before making a trade.